Weather is a powerful force effecting the economy. No doubt about it. Abnormal weather conditions can shift the timing of purchases or it can result in a total loss of demand. But, to be meaningful to a geographically diverse country such as the United States, the impact has to widespread.

    毋用置疑，天气是一种影响经济的强大力量。异常的天气条件可改变采购时间并且使需求总量下降。有意思的是处于不同地理位置的国家，如美国。这种影响是广泛的。

    Weather is a risk factor for business and government. Retailers often talk about how adverse weather impacts their sales and/or earnings. Witness, for example, the July 6, 2005,statement on second-quarter earnings by Peter Harris, CEO of West Marine, who said of his company’s sales:“As one would expect, continuing poor weather in April and May on both coasts dampened second quarter sales, especially when compared to the great spring weather we enjoyed last year. Unlike last year, many boats in our Northeast region, from the mid-Atlantic up through the northeastern seaboard and across to the Great Lakes, remained in storage until June. Although sales picked up along with better weather in June, we still had a disappointing second quarter.”

    天气对商业和政府都是一个风险因素。零售商经常谈到怎样改变天气对他们销售和/或收入的影响。例如：2005年6月6日西海（West Marine）的最高行政长官Peter Harris公布二季度的收入状况，他说：“如预料的那样，在持续恶劣天气的4-5月，这个公司二季度的销售令人沮丧的下滑，尤其与去年我们满意的大好的春天天气相比。与去年不同，在我们东北部地区（从大西洋中部到东北海岸并穿过五大湖）很多船的库存保持到六月。虽然销售随着六月天气的好转
而回升，我们对二季度仍是失望。”

    But weather matters to more than just retailers, and it can have secondary or indirect impacts on consumer spending. On March 14, 1978, Raymond Scheppach of the Congressional Budget Office testified before Congress:

    1978年3月14日国会预算办公室Raymond Scheppach在会前作证：对零售商关系更大的是天气对顾客的消费有继发的或间接的影响。

    Weather is an uncontrollable variable that directly and indirectly affects the federal budget. . . .The effects of weather on various budget accounts can be classified according to the type of weather sensitivity as follows: direct, indirect, and timing. Direct effects are those in which outlays and, at times, budget authority are affected directly by weather. Disaster payments to farmers for crop losses and unemployment compensation paid to workers who have been laid off because of a weather related shortage of natural gas are examples. An indirect impact is one that changes budget outlays through the inflation rate as generally reflected in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). For example, a crop loss causes food prices to increase, which in turn increases the overall CPI. Ultimately, such a change in the inflation rate is reflected in the federal budget through the various indexed entitlement programs, such as social security, railroad retirement, etc. The final kind of weather induced budget effects are those that affect the timing, but not the total level, of expenditures. These are primarily construction-related accounts in which bad weather restricts construction activity and federal outlays, but generally the activity and outlays are made up when the weather improves. Prime examples of this type of activity would be highway construction and the Environmental Protection Agency waste water treatment construction program.

    天气是一个直接和间接影响联邦预算的不可控变量⋯⋯。按照天气敏感度的类型可将天气对各种预算数的影响分为：直接的、间接的和进度的影响。直接的影响是预算当局受天气直接的影响而支付的费用，如：对农民农作物损失和因天气关系天然气不足而失去工作工人失业补偿的灾害性支付，；间接的影响之一是因基于消费价格指数（CPI）的通货膨胀改变预算支出。如由于农产品损失导致食品价格以至整个CPI的轮番提高。最后，这种通货膨胀率的变化通过各
种与提名的项目挂钩的指数反映在联邦预算中。例如：社会安全、铁路的退休等。最后一种天气影响预算是影响进度而非支出的总水平。坏天气约束建设活动和联邦费用的有关帐户的主要建筑 一般当天气好转时活动和费用被补足。这些活动类型的主要例子应是高速公路建设和“环境保护代理”的废水处理的建设项目。

    Scheppach’s perspective on the direct, indirect and timing impacts of weather on the budget also is helpful in understanding how weather impacts consumer spending.

    Scheppach关于天气对预算直接的、间接的和进度的影响的观点有助于理解怎样的天气影响顾客的消费。

    THREE WEATHER IMPACTS

    三种天气影响

    In assessing weather effects on consumer and business activity, there are three basic aspects to consider:(1) “weather as noise” and its role in shifting the timing of purchases or production (temporary impact); (2) “weather as a seasonal shock” and the possibility of a permanent impact on demand and output; and (3) “weather cycles” and a potentially causal relationship with macroeconomic activity.

    评估天气对消费者和商业活动的影响，要考虑三个基本方面：（1）“象燥声样天气”改变购物或生产的时间（临时影响）；（2）“象周期性震荡的天气”，对需求 产量有可能永久性的影响；（3）“天气周期”是个与宏观经济活动关联的潜在的原因。

    In all three cases, it is not surprising that weather impacts economic activity—even if most economists do not explicitly consider that impact significant. Nonetheless, Nobel Prize winner Clive Granger (1978) wrote: “… actual changes in temperature, rainfall, and other weather variables have direct effects on various economic series, such as those concerned with agricultural production, construction, and transportation, and consequent indirect effects on other series. It could be argued that this cause is the true seasonal, being itself a
consequence of the annual movement of the earth’s axis which leads to the seasons.” It may be more surprising, however, that for the United States—which is geographically diverse—there is a macroeconomic impact from adverse weather, especially given that the U.S. Department of Commerce concluded in 1965 that its own “study attempted to isolate the impact of weather conditions on the irregular factor of retail sales but the geographic dispersion was too great and no practical application was possible.”

    所有这三种情况，可以毫不奇怪的认为：天气影响经济活动，尽管有许多经济学家不是明确的认为这些影响有重大的意义。尽管如此，诺贝尔奖获得者Clive Granger (1978)写道：“实际改变温度、降雨量和其它天气变量已经直接地影响了经济系列的各个方面。如关系到农业生产、建筑和运输并且对其他系列直接影响的结果。季节周期性转换的真正原因是地球轴每年运动的结果，这个也许有争议。”这令人吃惊，然而，对地理变化多的美国，1965年商务部论断：承认不利的天气对宏观经济影响，“努力研究天气条件对零售销售不规则因素单独的影响，但由于地域差异这么大可能无实用价值。”

    However, theory, data and empirical studies have come a long way. Robert Barsky and Jeffrey Miron (1989) suggest, for example, that the true macroeconomic link is from abnormal weather to the seasonal cycle to the business cycle. Those researchers further found that “seasonal fluctuations are an important source of variation in all macroeconomic quantity variables, including consumption, investment, government purchases, employment and the money stock. On the other hand, seasonal fluctuations are small or absent on both real and nominal price variables. . . . We suspect that the weather plays an important role in the [process].” The significance of this linkage should not be understated, as Barsky and Miron observed that “the similarity of the seasonal cycle and the business cycle presents a challenge because it suggests the possibility of a unified explanation of both business cycles and seasonal cycles.”

    不管怎么说,理论、资料和经验的研究已经走过了很常的路。如: Robert Barsky and Jeffrey Miron (1989)曾提出：“真正的宏观经济链是反常天气与季节周期及商业周期的关联。”这些研究者又进一步发现：“季节波动是所有宏观经济变量变异的重要来源，包括消费、投资、政府采购、就业和货币存量。另一方面，不动产和名义价格变量的季节波动是小的或不存在的……。我们猜想天气在这过程中扮演了一个重要的角色。”这种联想的意义应是不简单的，正如Barsky和Miron的观察：“因为季节周期与商业周期的类似，就出现了一个挑战，即暗示统一解释商业周期和季节周期的可能性。”

    ARE WEATHER INFLUENCES TRANSITORY OR PERMANENT?

    天气影响是短期的还是永久的？

    In Nobel Prize winner Milton Friedman’s permanent income hypothesis, he posits that consumption and income can be segmented into two parts: a permanent component and a transitory component. Friedman wrote that the transitory component could be the result of,among other things, “unusually good or bad weather.” But the basis of this theory and other consumption theories following a similar line of reasoning is that if income—either permanent or transitory—does not change, then any increase or decrease in transitory consumption associated with abnormal weather will be reversed in the subsequent period or periods. Yet,still, there is a debate within the economics literature as to whether lost output or sales due to a shock is “permanent” or “transitory.” No truer is this concern evident when unseasonable weather impacts consumer spending. Are retail sales permanently lost or do they simply shift into some future date?

    诺贝尔奖获得者Milton Friedman的永久收益假设：他将消费和收入分割为两个部分：永久成分的和短成分的。Friedman写道：短期成分可能是由“特别好或坏天气”引起的。但是基于这个理论和其它消费理论有相似的推论：如果收入不改变，不管是永久的还是短期的，与不正常天气有关的短期消费的增加或减少将在后来的时期或周期中反转。然而，在经济文献中，对天气短期或永久的打击使产量或销售减少的论断仍有争论。不合季节的天气明显影响顾客消费
的关系是不确定的。在未来的日子里，零售销售会永远丢失或他们做简单的改变吗？

    Fabian Linden (1962) observed that those retail sales can be permanently lost due tounseasonable weather. Moreover, his study concluded that “weather has a powerful effect on demand.” Martha Starr-McCluer (2000) also points out that weather affects non-market activities (such as shopping or recreation time); yet, in the end, she concluded that the weather’s impact on retail sales “tends to wash out at a quarterly frequency.” While the Starr-McCluer conclusion is traditional, it may be too simplistic. In a series of papers by Barsky and Miron, Miron, and Beaulieu and Miron, the authors found that the seasonal cycle displays similar characteristics to the business cycle in the United States and internationally.Barsky and Miron (1989) concluded that “weather plays an important role in the [seasonal] recovery of [national output] from the first to the second quarter.” The assumption is that the seasonal cycle has reasonably fixed attributes, such as with the timing of holidays, weather patterns, factory shutdown periods, auto model production changeover schedules, and so on.In most cases, this is a reasonable assumption when it comes to holidays such as Christmas,but it is not true when it comes to other holidays such as Easter. The retail industry has long observed that the earlier in the year Easter occurs, the smaller the sales impact; in many cases, the seasonal cycle is not neutral over the year.

    Fabian Linden (1962)观察：由于不合季节的天气可能使零售销售永久性的丢失。而且，他研究推论“天气有能力影响需求”。Martha Starr-McCluer (2000)也指出：天气影响非市场行为（如：购物或娱乐时间），最终，她断定天气对零售销售的影响“往往在一个季度中冲击数次”。虽然Starr-McCluer的结论是传统的切如此的简单化。在Barsky与Miron、Miron与Beaulieu和 Miron的一系列著作中，作者们发现在美国和国际上季节周期对商业周期表现为类似的特征。
Barsky and Miron (1989)推断“在二季度初天气对全国产量季节性恢复表现为一个重要的角色”。假设季节周期有固有的特征，如：定期的休假日、天气模式、工厂停工期、汽车生产模式的改变的时间表等等。在大多数情况下，当一个节日如圣诞节来临时这是一个合理假设，但另一个节日如复活节来临时这却是不确定的。零售业已观察很久今年复活节前出现的零售销售很小的影响。在大多数情况下季节周期全年是确定的。

    CLIMATE CYCLES

    气候周期

    One reason to believe that abnormal weather can have a lingering effect on the economy isthe building scientific evidence that an El Nifio(EN) or the Southern Oscillation (SO)—often referred to as “ENSO“—is a multi-year cycle of interaction between the atmosphere and the ocean, which produces a large-scale abnormal warming in sea surface temperatures found primarily in the tropical Pacific (see Chart 6-1). During ENSO periods, abnormal weather patterns may develop around the world. Similarly, a La Nifio is a multi-year period when there is a cooling in sea temperatures, which can result with the opposite effects from the ENSO. Table 6-1 presents the El Nifio periods. The most severe El Niifio on record occurred in 1982–1983, and was associated directly with $1.3 billion in flood damage in the United States alone. The 1994–1995 El Nifio was mild, on the other hand, and was associated with one of the warmest winters in the United States on record and unusually wet conditions in the West (especially in California).

    有理由相信反常天气可对经济有延缓的影响正被建立科学证据。El Nifio(EN)或Southern Oscillation (SO)经常提供“ENSO“—— 一种大气与海洋交互的多年循环周期,它最早在热带太平洋被发现的海洋表面温度产生大规模非正常的升高（见图6-1）。在‘ENSO“周期中，非正常天气模式可能在全世界展开。同样，La Nifio是一个多年的海洋温度冷却的时期。它引起的后果与ENSO的影响相反。表6-1表明El Nifio期。最严重的El Nifio的记录出现在1982-1983年。单在美国它与13亿美元的洪水灾害损失直接有关。1994–1995年El Nifio是温和的，它与美国创记录的最暖的暖冬有关，而且在西部出现不寻常的潮湿环境。（尤其在加里福尼亚）

    What does the presence of an El Nifio mean for retailers and other weather-sensitive businesses?

    EI Nitro的存在对零售商和其他天气敏感的商业意味着什么？

    The record qualitatively shows that overall U.S. consumer spending tends to be stronger in the early stages of an El Nifio. This may be due partly to, and initially from, less nondiscretionary spending on energy, for example, and more spending on other discretionary items. Moreover, it takes about 9–12 months for the impact of the warming in the Pacific Ocean (as reflected by the Southern Oscillation Index) to show up as abnormally wet weather over a widespread area of the United States. The sunspot cycle might be another reason for expecting longer-run impacts climate on the economy. Galileo was credited with discovering sunspots around 1610. Ever since that time, there has been a debate, which at times has been intense, on the effect of solar activity on man, weather, agriculture and the whole economy. The cycle in sunspot activity, however, was not fully appreciated until Heinrich Schwabe published a paper on the subject in 1844 and concluded that there was a reasonably periodic cycle in sunspot activity. Hence, the sunspot cycle is often dubbed the Schwabe cycle. Based on a thorough review of the scientific literature on the sun and its impact on weather, John Herman and Richard Goldberg (1978) concluded: (1) “the amount of annual rainfall . . . exhibits a dependence on the 11 year sunspot cycle in many land areas of the world”; (2) “long-term variations in surface temperature show some relationship with [the] sunspot cycle”; and (3) “sunspots are either a barometer for changes in solar [activity] or reflect direct processes related to solar activity which interact with the Earth’s atmosphere to affect weather and climate.” Moreover, Herman and Goldberg suggest that the consensus of spectral analysis studies (a cycle-length determining statistical technique) has found that the major periodicities in sunspots are at average cycle durations of 5.5, 8.1, 9.7, 11.2, 100 and 180 years.

    可靠的记录显示：全美消费者消费倾向在EI Nifio早期较强劲。开始阶段应付部分少数属刚性支出，如能耗。更多的支出属可自行选择的内容。此外，受太平洋海域升温的影响约持续9-12个月（摘自the Southern Oscillation Index）表现为异常的潮湿天气弥漫美国广泛的地区。太阳黑子周期可能是气候对经济更长期影响的另一个原因。可以认为Galileo发现太阳黑子周期大约在1610年。从那时至今，太阳活动对人、天气、农业和整个经济的影响一直有争论，有时很激
烈。然而，直到1844年Heinrich Schwabe出版这个主题的文献前，太阳黑子活动周期还未被完全认识，他推断太阳黑子活动有一定的循环周期。因此，太阳黑子周期常被称为施瓦布周期（Schwabe Cycle）。基于对太阳和它对天气影响科学文献的全面回顾，John Herman和RichardGoldberg（1978）论断：（1）“年降雨量……它的表现在世界许多地区和国家是根据11年太阳黑子周期”；（2）“水面温度长期的变化显示与太阳黑子周期有关”；（3）“太阳黑子要
么是太阳活动改变的标志，或直接反映与太阳活动有关的过程，这种活动与地球大气结合影响天气和气候”；此外，Herman和Goldberg提出光谱分析研究一致认为(周期长度决定统计技术)已被发现：太阳黑子主周期平均为5.5,8.1,9.7,11.2,100和180年。

    An early comprehensive attempt to incorporate the Schwabe cycle into a business cycle framework was suggested by William Stanley Jevons (1835–1882), who early in his career was a practicing meteorologist. In Jevons’Investigations in Currency and Finance, he discussed economic fluctuations and isolated three components of economic activity: seasonal fluctuation, business cycles and trends. Jevons attempted to statistically link the business cycle with fluctuations in sunspot activity. There was additional research by Jevons’son, H.S. Jevons, who further observed that “among other meteorological cycles, there exists a three-and-one-half-year period in solar radiation and barometric pressure,” which might help to explain the shorter-term business cycle. But despite the ongoing scientific research on sunspots, the economics profession has generally dismissed sunspots as a factor influencing the business cycle, largely because of some statistical problems with Jevons’ early study. Nonetheless, the cycle in sunspots is often linked to a climatic cycle, which has four major phases: warm-wet, warm-dry, cold-wet and cold-dry. Between the mid-1930s and mid-1950s,Raymond H. Wheeler, who was a professor of psychology at the University of Kansas,examined the role that those climatic phases had on human activities, including business activity. Michael Zahorchak (1983)summarized the Wheeler evidence as follows: While the causes of the business cycle vary, the common thread throughout all of the cycles is weather, and that no economic theory is complete without a weather component that can contribute a stimulating and debilitating effect on the economy. Wheeler did not advocate weather as the only cause of the business cycle—rather as a significant contributing factor. Wheeler’s work is an extension of earlier research by Ellsworth Huntington (1919), who suggested that variations in health caused the business cycle. Huntington felt that weather and solar radiation had critical influences on health. Wheeler and Huntington downplayed the weather/agricultural cycle connection with the economy and argued instead that “weather trends affect people directly, and [people are affected] only incidentally through crops.” The sunspot cycle is shown in Chart 6-2. In the final analysis, Edward Dewey (1968) summarized the empirical research on the relationship between sunspots and the economic cycle when he wrote: “. . . in spite of numerous allegations and widespread folklore, there is, as yet, no conclusive evidence that the dominant 11-year sunspot cycle, or the double sunspot cycle of 22 years, or any of the subsidiary solar cycles that have been alleged, have any economic or sociological repercussions.” And that is where the evidence largely still stands.

    早期努力将施瓦布周期并入商业周期的框架由早期是实习气象学家的William Stanley Jevons (1835–1882)提出。在他“流通与金融的研究”一文中，他讨论了经济波动和经济活动独立的三个内容：季节性波动、商业周期和趋势。他还努力统计商业周期与太阳黑子活动波动的关系。另外有由Jevons的儿子H.S. Jevons的研究。他进一步观察：“在其它气象周期中，有一个三年半的太阳辐射和大气压的周期”，着也许有助于解释短期的商业周期。尽管对太阳黑子还在科学研究中，但是经济学专家一般已经撇开太阳黑子作为影响商业周期的一个因素。最大的原因是由于Jevons早期研究的一些统计问题。但是，太阳黑子周期常常与气候周期有关系，这可分为四种主要状态：热-湿、热-干、冷-湿和冷-干。二十世纪三十年代中到五十年代中，堪萨斯大学的心理学教授Raymond H. Wheeler调查这些气候状态对人类活动，包括商业活动的影响。Michael Zahorchak (1983)概括了Wheeler的如下证据：当通常贯穿全部周期的商业周期变化的原因是天气。能对经济产生刺激和衰退影响中如没有天气因素，那么没有一种经济理论是完善的。Wheeler不主张将天气做为商业周期的唯一原因，而仅是个有意义的作用因素。Wheeler的工作是Ellsworth Huntington (1919) 更早研究的继续。他提出健康的变化引起商业周期。Huntington觉得天气和太阳辐射对人体健康有危险的影响。Wheeler和Huntington不重视天气/农业周期与经济的关系。“天气趋势直接影响人类并附带通过农作物再影响到人类”。太阳黑子周期见图6-2。Edward Dewey (1968)曾总结太阳黑子与经济周期两者关系的实验研究。他写道：“……面对众多指责和普遍的传说,但目前还没有确凿的证据表明,主导11年的太阳黑子周期或双黑子周期22年,或者任何附属太阳周期所声称的那样,有任何经济或社会反响。”证据应是有效的。

    WEATHER DOES MATTER

    天气问题

    This article reviewed the literature on shifts in weather, climate and the seasons, as well as their potential impact on consumer spending and, more generally, the economy. Although the empirical evidence for longer-term climate or weather cycles affecting consumer spending is still inconclusive, there are plenty of reasons to expect that there is some relationship between abnormal weather and changes in typical consumer spending behavior.

    本文回顾了关于天气、气候和季节变化的文献，还有对消费者消费和经济的潜在的更一般影响。虽然经验证明长期的气候或天气周期影响消费者消费仍不确定。但有许多理由认为非正常天气与消费者典型的消费行为改变之间有某些关系。

    BACKGROUND 背景

    Over the years, shopping center formats have taken on a confusing array of identities, with names that include such descriptors as centers, commons, crossings, hybrids, lifestyle centers, calls, markets, marts, mega-malls, mixed-use,outlets, parkways, places, plazas,promenades, shops, strips,squares, super centers, town centers, urban retail, vertical,and villages.

    多年来,购物中心业态特征被模糊了.包括下例的名称都作为中心来描述：

    commons （公共中心） crossings （十字中心）

    hybrids （桥接中心） lifestyle centers （生活方式中心）

    calls （呼叫中心） markets （市场）

    marts （商业中心） mega-malls （大型摩尔）

    mixed-use （共用空间） outlets （工厂直销）

    parkways （园径） places （商场）

    plazas （广场） promenades （步行街）

    shops （商店） strips （条状中心）

    squares （广场） super centers （超级中心）

    town centers （城镇中心） urban retail （都市中心）

    vertical （立式中心） villages. （村）

    Unfortunately, there is no agreement as to how many distinct types of shopping center formats there really are,nor how individual centers should be assigned to the various categories. Adding to the confusion is the fact that shopping centers can be further differentiated by a variety of marketing and management strategies including:convenience,entertainment, ethnicity, festival, lifestyle,luxury, off-price, theme (e.g., home improvement and furniture), tourist, urban and value. When considering the possible combinations of these types of differentiating, it is understandable that some consider the retail sector inherently complex and difficult to understand.

    不幸的是对与购物中心业态究竟有多少种独特的类型和一个购物中心应该配置那些不同的商品品类还没有一致的意见。购物中心可因不同的营销和管理形成进一步的差异增加了概念上的混乱，包括它的：便利性、娱乐性、种族性、节庆性、生活方式性、豪华性、低价性、主题性（如：家居用品和家具）、面向旅游者、都市中心和价值中心。可考虑将这些不同类型结合，使零售分类十分复杂并难一理解。

    To address this situation and help provide some insight into the major components of the retail market, the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) developed a classification of shopping center formats. This typology has undergozhene a number of modifications over the years, as new formats have emerged and variations of existing formats have become more significant. ICSC is at an important crossroads with respect to the reassessment of current shopping center definitions as it considers how to respond to the introduction of new formats, the blurring of lines among existing categories, and the resurgence in mixed-use and other urban projects in which retail is a component of a larger development. While the current typology, or classification scheme, has come under attack by some who argue they are imprecise, the organization’s standard has contributed to a greater understanding of the structure and performance of the overall shopping center industry. However, given the dynamic, competitive nature of retail real estate and increased interest in the role of retail has in revitalizing urban centers, managing growth and responding to market demand, the timing is right to step back and revisit the current classifications. This review process can benefit from the application of “rules of classification,” as well as efforts to expand the market’s acceptance and use of ICSC’s shopping center classification.

    为了指导和帮助提供零售市场主要构成的情况ICSC 开发了一个购物中心业态的分类.这个分类学已经修正了前几年的数字，出现新的业态和现存业态的边异有更重要的意义。ICSC 处于重要的十字路口，它既要兼顾怎样对因传入新业态以至分类系列模糊的现有购物中心定义的重新评估和又要对更大发展零售项目如混合使用及其它都市项目的认识。现有的分类学和分类方案受到某些人的批评，他们认为是不严密的。这个机构标准的贡献是对整个购物中心产业结构和业绩的最大谅解。无论如何，适时的回顾和重登现在的分类可给予有竞争天性的零售房地产业以动力并提高更新在都市中心、管理的成长、零售角色及对市场需求的反应的兴趣。重温这个过程可从分类规则中获益，也可努力扩大市场的认知度和ICSC 的购物中心分类的利用度。

    EVOLUTION OF SHOPPING CENTER CLASSIFICATIONS

    购物中心分类的演变

    To provide a frame of reference for revisiting shopping center classifications nd to develop ome perspective on current issues, it is necessary to explore the evolution of shopping enters and shopping center classifications. There have been three major waves of shopping enter development that have triggered changes in retail classifications. During the first wave,shopping centers were classified into several basic categories, including community centers, ighborhood centers and strip centers. These shopping center formats were distinct from free-standing retail and urban retail with respect to integrated design and unified storefronts,provision of on-site parking, strategic blending of tenants, emphasis on convenience and basic goods and coordinated management. Early shopping centers also tended to be fairly uniform, designed to satisfy more of the mass merchandise demands while offering the convenience of one-stop shopping. In the second wave, which began with Southdale Mall in Minneapolis, the age of regional malls was born. This wave took the form of a shift from urban to suburban shopping, spawning a spate of new malls. The major distinguishing elements of malls over shopping centers was the fact that most were enclosed centers with a common corridor connecting tenants, and sheer increases in the aggregate size and number of tenants, both anchor and in-line.1 The third wave was a period of product differentiation in which the two core categories were further subdivided. For example, with the emergence of “category killers,” the shopping center category spawned a new genre of centers known as powercenters.2 Similarly, super regional malls became dwarfed by even larger formats known as mega-malls such as the West Edmonton Mall and the Mall of America. During this period, the market also began recognizing various positioning strategies, which emerged as developers and operators sought to differentiate their properties and firm up their market niches (e.g.,entertainment, festival, lifestyle, mixed-use, open-air, premium, and tourist).

    为了提供重新审视购物中心分类的参考性框架和对现版的分类提出某些观点,必须了解购物中心和购物中心分类的演变。引发零售分类变化的购物中心的发展已有三次高潮。第一波，已将购物中心区分为不同的基本种类，包括社区中心（Community Centers）、邻里中心（Neighborhood Centers）和条状中心（Strip Centers）。这些购物中心的业态与无标准的零售业和都市零售业截然不同。他们重视整体设计和统一的店面、提供停车泊位、租户的组合策略，强调便利性、基础商品和协同管理。早期的购物中心在提供方便的一步式购物的同时，倾向于更加统一性和更大的满足群众的商品需求。第二波开始于地区摩尔诞生的年代，即明尼阿波利斯的Southdale Mall。这一波产生了从都市购物向郊区购物形式的转换，迎来了新的摩尔的浪潮。摩尔超越购物中心主要的区别元素在于大多数被围起来的中心有一个公共的走廊连接租户并极大地增加了集合体的体量和锚店和里面租户的数量。第三波是产生差异化的时期，即在两种核心种类的基础上进一步被细分化。例如：出现“品类杀手”、购物中心衍生的新类型众所周知的能量中心、使超级地区摩尔相形显小的更大的业态——百万摩尔（Mega-malls）,象西爱德蒙摩尔（West Edmonton Mall）和美国摩尔（Mall of America）。在这期间，市场也开始认可各种配置的战略，这些战略应发展商和运行商寻求他们物业的差异化并由此而提升企业的生存环境而生。（如：娱乐、节庆、生活方式、共用空间、开放式、有奖销售和面向旅游
者）。

    CURRENT ICSC SHOPPING CENTER CLASSIFICATIONS

    现版的ICSC购物中心的分类

    The current ICSC shopping center classifications consist of two major categories: malls and open-air centers, each of which is divided into sub categories. Within these broad categories,the sub-classifications hinge on several key attributes, including:

    现版的ICSC购物中心的分类包括两个主要的种类：摩尔和开放式中心。它们各自又分为亚类。这些类别和亚类以几个关键的属性来区别。包括：

    • Concept. The underlying business strategy or model that distinguishes the REIT (realestate investment trust) or helps characterize its overall operations. The defined “concept”captures the theme or market positioning offered by centers within the broader categories,including such characteristics as convenience, customer-orientation, entertainment,merchandise lines, and price points.

    概念：基本的经营战略或与房地产信托基金相区别的模式或籍助于全面运营的特征。被定义的概念确定了主题或由购物中心在阔广的类别中选定的市场定位，包括诸如便利、顾客定位、娱乐、商品线和价格导向等特性。

    • Size. The massing of the center, including both anchor tenants and other tenants.

    大小::大的中心包括锚店和其它租户。

    • Acreage. The typical land assemblage required to house the retail space, along with parking and ancillary services necessary to the operation of the respective types of centers.

    面积：典型的场地配备必要的零售空间建筑，连同停车场和对中心类型有关的运行所必需的辅助服务。

    • Typical Anchors. A profile of the type, size, and business orientation of the major anchor tenants that are typically housed in the centers.

    典型的锚店：占据中心有代表性的建筑的主要锚定租户的类型轮廓、面积大小和业务定位。

    • Anchor Ratios. The mix of anchor and non-anchor tenants, including in-line retail tenants.

    锚店比率：锚店与非锚店租户的组合，包括线内零售租户。

    • Primary Trade Areas. The typical size of the primary trade area from which the respective centers draw the bulk (i.e., 60%-80%) of their customer sales.

    主要商圈：典型的大小是该中心对他们顾客吸引销售能力的大小（如60%-80%）。

    Table 22-1 presents the core concepts and size ranges of the eight sub-types of retail in the current ICSC classification system. As noted, there are some overlaps in the various attributes across several retail classes. Thus, in order to properly classify a center, the combination of other attributes must also be considered.

    表22-1表明核心概念和现版ICSC分类系统中八个亚类的大小排列。注意有几个零售种类交叉的不同属性的一些交迭。于是，为了正确地区分一个中心必须结合考虑其它的属性。

    By Tom Kirwan Despite the industry’s woes, Woodbury Common Premium Outlets, outside New York City,and other top-tier factory outlet centers continue to thrive.

    尽管整个业态不妙，但纽约市郊的Woodbury Common Premium Outlets 和其它顶级factoryoutlet centers 持续繁荣。

    Though it’s bankruptcies like that of discounter Kmart Corp. that capture the limelight, there has been plenty of distress in the approximately $14 billion U.S. outlet retail business too, with retailers going out of business and centers shutting down.

    尽管它像K-mart 折扣公司的倒闭那样非常引人注目,在美国约有140 亿的Outlets 的零售业务遇到许多困难以至关闭和出局。

    “It’s the worst I’ve ever seen it,” said one industry developer who declined to be identified. “It’s just not getting any better.”

    “这是我经历过最差的。”一个不愿透露姓名的业内人士说。“没有好转的迹象。”

    Only three outlet projects opened in 2001, compared to the all-time high of 43 in 1989, according to Value Retail News, the factory outlet industry magazine published by ICSC. Industry consolidation, sluggish sales, cookie-cutter tenant mixes, stiff competition and a public perception that the discounts are not worth the drive have all contributed to the tempering of the outlet industry’s once-phenomenal growth. According to VRN, the number of outlet centers peaked at 329 projects in 1996, and have fallen to 261 in 2001.

    按照VRN 资料——由ICSC 出版的工厂直销零售行业杂志：在2001 年仅新开了三个Outlet。

    而在1989 年，新开的outlet 达到历史最多的43 家。产业兼并、销售减速、小租户混杂、残酷的竞争和消费者观念(打折得到的实惠还不及车费) 都对曾经高速增长的outlet 行业带来了打击。按上述资料，2001 年Outlet 的数量已从1996 年329 个的峰值降落到261 个。

    The outlet retail niche, which accounts for roughly 1 percent of total retail sales, has been feeling the sting of bankruptcy-induced chain closings since the late 1990s. Soft apparel sales trends aggravated by the tepid economy, a drop in international tourism and worries about terrorism are taking their toll on the weaker outlet industry retailers, insiders say.

    内部人士说：Outlet 原本在零售业中占的比重并不大，粗略估计约占总零售销售的1%。自上世纪九十年代后期以来，一连串的关闭已能感觉到引发倒闭的伤痛。由于经济减速带来的服饰销售下降、对恐怖主义的担忧和旅游客的下降，使已经开始衰退的Outlet 雪上加霜。

    In the value industry, the liquidation of well-known outlet chains underscores the seriousness of the situation. Among the largest recent examples are Bugle Boy and Lechters’ Famous Brands Housewares, which together shuttered more than 250 outlet stores last year. Bugle Boy alone was leasing 936,000 square feet of gross leasable area at the time it closed its units.

    在廉价行业中，一些著名Outlet 连锁店的清理遮掩了形势的严峻性。最近其中最大的案例是Bugle Boy 和Lechters’ Famous Brands Housewares。去年他们合起来共关闭了250 个Outlet 商店。单Bugle Boy 就关了936，000 平方英尺GLA 的出租单元。

    But Bugle Boy and Famous Brands are only two in a long line of outlet chains that have closed in recent years. Others include Britches, Hero Group, Leather Loft, Mondi and Prestige Fragrance.

    但是，Bugle Boy 和Famous Brands 仅是近年来已关闭的Outlet 连锁连锁店长长名单中的两个。其它包括Britches, Hero Group, Leather Loft, Mondi Prestige Fragrance 等。

    Tanger Factory Outlet Centers, with its 29 outlet centers, is one of the industry’s top players,recently reported that 10 of its tenants had gone into bankruptcy in 2001, representing 230,000 square feet in the developer’s portfolio.

    有29 个Outlet 中心的Tanger Factory Outlet Centers 是行业领导者之一。最近报道，它的租赁开发商230，000 平方英尺面积的十个承租户已在2001 年倒闭。

    The only beneficiaries of this otherwise gloomy picture appear to be the stronger survivors. The average outlet center grew to 211,715 square feet in 2001, from 123,710 square feet in 1991,according to VRN. Many owners are finding themselves forced to reposition their centers or lose tenants and sales to newer, better-located outlet centers that have superior stores.

    如此令人沮丧的景象中得益的仅是幸存者将变得更强。按VRN 资料，Outlet center 平均面积从1991 年123，710 平方英尺发展至2001 年211，715 英尺。许多业主着力于重新定位他们的中心，不然的话将丢失承租户和销售额给更新，更好地段并拥有更强租户（品牌）的Outlet 中心。

    Outlet chain downsizings are also taking their toll. American Outpost, which emerged from bankruptcy protection more than a year ago with new management and new investors, saw its outlet store count reduced from a peak of about 120 units to 15. Welcome Home, which went into Chapter 11 in 1999, came out of bankruptcy in 2000 after slimming down to 120 stores from about 220. And London Fog emerged from bankruptcy in May of last year after shedding all but 35 of its 120 units. Today it operates with 38 outlet stores.

    Outlet 连锁缩减规模也是敲响了警钟。American Outpost 在申请破产保护并更换管理层和投资者一年多后走出了破产保护，Outlet 商店的数量从约120 个单元的峰值降低为15 个。1999 年进入破产保护的Welcome Home 从约220 个缩减为约120 个商店后于2000 年走出了破产保护。LondonFog 将120 个商店缩减到35 个后，在去年5 月走出了破产保护,现在它仅有38 个商店在运营。

    Another recent example is Chicago-based jewelry chain Ultra Stores, which filed for Chapter 11 in March 2001 and emerged from bankruptcy this year. Ultra Stores ultimately closed 37 units and cut overhead costs by 30 percent during bankruptcy, the company said. After an additional five stores close this year, it will have 106 units. Though still operating outlet units, the retailer says it is increasingly shifting to more-conventional jewelry stores in downtown shopping districts.

    另一个最近的例子是2001 年3 月申请破产保护的芝加哥的珠宝连锁Ultra Stores 在今年走出了破产保护。公司宣称：Ultra Stores 在破产保护期最终关闭37 个单元，削减管理费用30%。而后，另外5 个店也在今年关闭，它还剩106 个单元。零售商说：虽然Outlet 商店仍开着，但将把重心放在开在市中心购物区更传统的珠宝店。

    Such store closings leave a smaller pool of stores from which outlet center developers can stock their projects. Some leasing reps are considering alternative tenants as the outlet universe diminishes. Strong candidates include manufacturers that are either not in the business or have only one or two outlets. Among other options are full-price retailers, lifestyle-driven chains and eateries. Regional retail players with a strong brand are also being tapped.

    由于那些商店缩减规模，Outlet 发展商可选择加盟品牌日益减少。由于选择范围的缩小，某些业主将选择一些其他类型的承租人。首选的承租人包括没有的或仅在1-2 个Outlet 布点的制造商。其次是足价零售商、生活方式推动的连锁店和餐馆。具有强势品牌的地区性零售商也被选择。

    Though a Chapter 11 filing doesn’t always result in store closings, it usually does. Typically, outlet retailers chasing solvency spend more time closing troubled stores than opening new ones. A recent example is Warrendale, Pa.-based Pennsylvania Fashions, parent of Rue 21 and 9.99 Stockroom. Eight days after its Feb. 4 filing under Chapter 11, Pennsylvania Fashions hired a liquidation company that announced it was closing 74 of the retailer’s 247 stores. Of the stores being liquidated, 51 were in regional malls and 23 occupied outlet centers and other value-oriented projects.

    通常总是导致商店关门。一般追逐偿付能力的Outlet 零售商倾向于关闭有麻烦的门店而不是开新门店。最近的一个例子是Warrendale、位于宾州的Pennsylvania Fashions、Rue 21 和9.99 Stockroom 的母公司. Eight days 在2 月4 日申请破产保护后，Pennsylvania Fashions 雇佣一个清算公司，公布有74 个零售商和247 个商店被关闭，正在被清算关闭的商店51 个在地区摩尔，23个在Outlet 中心和其他折扣店的项目。

    Pennsylvania Fashions is in good company. The Warnaco Group, which filed for Chapter 11 in mid-2001, has closed roughly 50 outlet stores in about a year, though in late March the company was still operating 51 units. Warnaco trades under the names Calvin Klein Outlet Stores, Chaps by Ralph Lauren Outlet Stores, Olga Warner Outlet Stores and Warnaco Outlet Stores. Warnaco’s outlet division totaled more than 100 stores at the end of 2001.

    Pennsylvania Fashions 是在一个好的公司中。2001 年申请破产保护的The Warnaco Group。它虽然在去年3 月底仍然运营了51 个单元，但大约在一年的时间内关闭了约50 个Outlet 商店。Warnaco 交易了Calvin Klein Outlet 店、Chaps by Ralph Lauren Outlet 店、 Olga Warner Outlet 店和Warnaco Outlet 店。Warnaco’s outlet 在2001 年末拥有了总数超过100 个商店。

    Another high-profile player, Secaucus, N.J.-based Kasper A.S.L., which filed for bankruptcy protection in February, says it closed 28 of its outlet stores during the year ended March 31. The company operates outlet stores under the Kasper and Anne Klein banners.

    另一个表现是在2 月申请破产保护的Secaucus, N.J.-based Kasper A.S.L.宣称至3 月31 日年度关闭了28 个Outlet 商店，公司以Kasper 和Anne Klein 名义经营Outlet 商店。Tanger Factory Outlets has 29 centers, including this one in Riverhead, N.Y.Tanger Factory Outlets 有29 个中心，包括在纽约Riverhead 的那一个。

    Meanwhile, mainstay outlet tenants, including Casual Male Outlet, Donna Karan, Jones New York,Old Navy and Polo Ralph Lauren, have within the past two years or so either reduced their store counts or capped the number of stores in their outlet chains. Of this group, only Casual Male was in bankruptcy, having sold its assets to Needham, Mass.-based retailer Designs in May.

    在Outlet 起中流砥柱作用的承租户包括Casual Male Outlet、Donna Karan、 Jones New York、Old Navy 和Polo Ralph Lauren。在过去的两年中要么减少他们商店的数目，要么给他们在Outlet连锁店数目封顶。在这些集团中，仅Casual Male 破产，将资产卖给Needham， 麻省的零售商Designs in May。

    One outlet store leasing consultant described something all too typical these days: a client chainthat has gone into a “wait and see mode,” putting previously planned growth on the back burner.This retailer, the consultant said, “has been spooked by the events of Sept. 11.” For now, anyway,that chain won’t be growing.

    一个Outlet 租赁商店的顾问描述了近来那些典型的事情：连锁顾客已进入到一个“等待和观察的模式”搁置先前的成长计划。这个零售商顾问说：“零售商已被9.11 事件惊吓”，以至于目前连锁无论如何不可能再增长。

    The combined distress of so many retailers has left its mark on the industry. Chelsea Property Group is the only developer that is actively acquiring existing centers and developing new ones.(In June the Roseland, N.J.-based company announced a joint venture to build Las Vegas Premium Outlets. Chelsea and Baltimore-based Prime Retail remain the largest owners by far,with 12.1 million square feet and 11.9 million square feet of retail space, respectively. Tanger Factory Outlet Centers, which ranks third in size, has 5.1 million square feet.

    基于众多的忧虑，很多零售商已离开了他们的业态。Chelsea Property Group 是仅有一个开发商仍然在积极收购现有中心并且开发新的。 在6 月，Chelsea Property Group 同新泽西州的Roseland公司公布合资建立Las Vegas Premium Outlets。Chelsea和位于Baltimore 的Prime Retail所有者保持目前最大业主地位。它们分别拥有1210 万平方英尺和1190 万平方英尺的零售空间。

    Tanger Factory Outlet Centers 以大小排列与第三，有510 万平方英尺。。

    But even for those companies whose centers are closing, there is some consolation: Many former outlet centers are leading new lives as conventional shopping centers. Things could be worse.

    但是，正在关闭中心的那些公司令人欣慰的是：许多以前的Outlet 中心正转型成常规的购物中心。事态的发展可能更坏。

    Tom Kirwan is a senior editor with Value Retail News.

    Tom Kirwan 是VRN 的一个高级编辑2006.1.22.译

    Michael P. Niemira U.S. retail space, as measured in square feet1, grew at about twice the average pace of the U.S.

    population over the last 35 years (see Table 3-1). By 2004, there was an estimated median of 40.5 square feet per person for total retail space—including freestanding stores, shopping centers, street retail and retail at mixed-use projects—among the nation’s 361 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs).

    Shopping center space for the entire United States, on the other hand, is estimated at 0.3 square feet per capita2, as shown in Table 3-2.3

    35年来，以平方英尺计，美国零售空间增长约为人口增长平均速度的两倍(见表3-2.3)。2004年经估计在国家规定的361个大城市的统计区域内（MSAs）每人享有零售面积的中位数为40.5平方英尺，它们包括独立的商店、购物中心、商业街、和合用项目。另外，如表3-2.全美购物中心空间估计每人0.3平方英尺。

    Retail per capita figures in and of themselves are not benchmarks, nor are they very meaningful in isolation. However, in context with similar figures for all metro can help to identify which markets have greater or lesser retail space and can, in turn, be used as a “first pass” look at over- or under-supply.This article goes one step further and examines the relationship between per capita retail stock and the unemployment rate as a guide to the market’s risk.

    孤立地表示无基础对比的每人零售数也许不是很有意义。然而，联系上下文看到所有大城市有类似的表现时，则可帮助识别现有的零售市场空间过大还是过小，并可作为“首过扫描”工具用于依次观察供应不足还是供应过量。本文进一步研究并考察每人拥有零售存量与失业率的关联性以指导规避市场风险。

    SHOPPING CENTER MARKET SHARE GROWTH
    购物中心市场粉额增长

    During the 1970s, shopping center space accounted for about one-third of the nation’s 361 metro markets4 . As a share of the population, there were 9.4 square feet of shopping center space per capita, on average, in the United States during the 10-year period ending 1979. The seemingly large jump to over 20 square feet per capita by 2004 reflected an increased market share of total retail stock in the form of shopping centers. By the 1990s, shopping centers accounted for two-thirds of the nation’s retail stock relative to those same markets

    上世纪七十年代，购物中心约占361个国内大城市市场的三分之一。七十年代末——1979年按当时的人口份额，美国每人平均有购物中心空间9.4平方英尺。2004年反映出购物中心在总零售中的市场份额增加，人均面积大幅跃上20平方英尺以上。九十年代，同口径计算购物中心占国内零售存量的三分之二。

    LARGEST RETAIL SPACE MARKETS
    最大的零售市场空间

    As shown in Table 3-3, the largest metro area market for retail is the New York Northern New Jersey-Long Island,New York-New Jersey-Connecticut Pennsylvania MSA. That MSA area alone accounted for 7.7% of the national metro area population in 2003 (the last actual), but only5.0% of the retail space market for those same 361 geographic markets. Benchmarked to the largest retail space market, the next largest is Los Angeles, which is about8% smaller than the greater New York City area. Not surprisingly, among the top retail markets are Chicago (3), Dallas (4), Miami (5),Philadelphia (6), Atlanta (7), Houston (8), Detroit (9) and Washington (10). Of significance in the wake of Hurricane Katrina is that the New Orleans metro area ranked as the 35th largest for retail space in 2003.

    如表3-3所示，零售业最大的城市区域市场是纽约——北纽泽西——长岛，纽约——纽泽西——康涅狄格——宾夕法尼亚大城市统计地区（MSA）。此统计地区在2003年人口占全国大城市地区的7.7%（最近的普查数），而同口径零售市场空间却仅为5.0%。与最大的零售市场空间相比，第二大的是洛杉矶，它比大纽约市地区小8%，毫无疑问，属顶级市场的还有芝加哥（第3位）、达拉斯（第4位）、迈阿密（第5位）、费城（第6位）、亚特兰大（第7位）、休斯顿（第8位）、底特律（第9位）、和华盛顿（第10位）。遭受卡特里娜飓风的大新奥尔良地区在2003年排行最大零售空间第35位。

    Among the largest 50 markets for retail space, the median density per market was 41.0 square feet per capita in 2003 compared with 40.0 for the median of all 361 markets.

    2003年，在最大50个零售市场中，每个市场密度的中位数是每人41平方英尺，而统计的全部361个市场的中位数是40平方英尺。

    HIGH RETAIL DENSITY MARKETS
    高密度零售市场

    The decision to build or expand retail space is made on a project-by-project basis yielding a potentially different composition of the retail stock in any given MSA.Nevertheless, the MSA ranking of 2003 retail stock per capita, as shown in Table 3-4, shows that the Myrtle Beach,South Carolina metro area had the highest stock per person at 74.8 square feet relative, almost twice the national average.5 Ohio metro areas as a group stand out as having among the nation’s highest retail stock per capita. Lima, Ohio had 70.5 square feet of retail space per capita—the second highest stock per person among the 361 metro areas. But even beyond that, 11 metro markets in Ohio were among the highest 13 with an average of 63.8 square feet of retail space per person. To be sure, this “macro” view does not address the quality or composition of that space, just the quantity. Nonetheless, Ohio claimed a considerable amount of retail density, and this is not a new story.

    Between 1970 and 2003, those 11 Ohio metro markets averaged approximately 75% more retail space per capita than the nation. As a whole, the average retail stock per person of the highest 50 metro areas was 54.3 square feet in 2003, with a median of 51.5 square feet.

    决定构筑和扩张零售空间项目的成功是受在任何给定的大城市统计地区（MSA）中不同成分的零售存量对项目的潜在影响。然而，2003年MSA对每人拥有零售存量的排名（见表3-4）默特尔海滩（MyrtleBeach）——南卡罗莱纳大区有人均74.8平方英尺相对最高的零售存量，几乎是全国平均数的两倍。利马——俄亥俄大区在国内最高人均零售存量的地区中是一个突出的地区。俄亥俄有人均70.5平方英尺零售空间，拥有人均零售存量在361个大区中排行第二。在拥有人均63.8平方英尺零售空间的13个最高的大城市中，其中11个在俄亥俄。确实，这样粗略的观察不计那些空间的质量和结构。但是，可以断言，俄亥俄有相当可观数量的零售密度，这不是一个新的问题。
 
    1997年至2003年这11个俄亥俄大城市市场平均超过国内人均零售空间约75%。总体上，2003年最高的50个大城市地区人均零售存量是54.3平方英尺，中位数为51.5平方英尺。

    LOW RETAIL DENSITY MARKETS
    低密度零售市场

    On the low retail density side, the Madera, California metro area ranked as the lowest among the 361 MSAs in 2003. With 19.4 square feet per person, that was about half of the nation’s average and well below the median of the lowest 50 in 2003, as shown in Table 3-5, of 28.2 square feet per capita (or an average of 27.2 square feet). Of note among the low retail density markets is the New York
metropolitan area, which ranks as the largest retail market in absolute size, but the 349th of 361based on population density. The New York MSA had 25.2 square feet per capita in 2003 and is an anomaly among the major MSAs.6

    在零售低密度这一边，表3-5显示，加利福尼亚曼德拉大区在361个MSA中最低，人均仅19.4平方英尺，这大约是全国平均值的一半并低于2003年最低的50个地区的中位数人均28.2平方英尺（或平均数27.2平方英尺）。零售低密度市场中最著名的是按零售市场绝对大小排列是最大的纽约市区，但根据人口零售密度却排在361个中的第349位。2003年纽约大城市统计地区（MSA）有人均25.2平方英尺，这在大城市统计的主要地区中是突出的。

    WHERE’S THE GROWTH?
    增长在那里？

    Over the five-year period from 1998 through 2003, total retail building stock grew by 2.3% per yearand, according to McGraw-Hill Construction, will slow to an average pace of 1.9% per year in thesubsequent five years. The fastest growing retail market between 1998 and 2003 was in St. George,Utah, with a hefty 8.4% increase per year. Carson City, Nevada had the second-fastest retailexpansion of the 361 MSAs, as shown in Table 3-6, with an 8.0% average annual increase. Although the McGraw-Hill Construction projection generally looks for a dramatic slowdown in retail expansion among the 50 fastest-growing markets between 1998 and 2003, there is one notable exception:Myrtle Beach—which was ranked seventh among the top 50. After average annual growth of 6.3% per year during that period, the MSA is projected to see a slightly faster pace of 6.6% over the subsequent five years.

    从1998年到2003年五年零售建筑存量总的每年增长2.3%，依照McGraw-Hill Construction计算未来五年每年平均增长速度将是1.9%。最快增长的零售市场是在1998年和2003年的犹大州圣乔治（St.George, Utah），每年强劲增长8.4%。表3-6显示，内华达州卡森城平均年增长8%，在361个MSAs区域中零售扩张速度排行第二。虽然McGraw-Hill Construction 预测通常注意到1998年和2003年之间在50个最快增长市场中有一个值得注意的例外， 排行第七的默特尔海滩零售的扩张出现戏剧性的减速。在那段时间每年平均年增长6.3%以后，MSA预测后五年有6.6%较快的增长。

    Another notable fact among the top 50 growing retail markets is that Carson City and Las Vegas are the only two MSAs from the same state among the five or 10 fastest-growing areas. Las Vegas, which is known for its explosion in population and tourist draw, is projected to add retail space by an average of 5.0% per year between 2003 and 2008.Generally, the retail expansion will occur in many smaller markets between 2003 and 2008, according to McGraw Hill. The El Centro, California MSA is projected to expand by a rapid 8.0% per year—making it the fastest growing market for retail space—followed by Harrisonburg, Virginia (+7.2%), Greeley, Colorado (+6.8%), Myrtle Beach, South Carolina (+6.6%—as noted above) and Fort Walton Beach, Florida (+6.0%).

    另外值得注意的事实是50个增长最大的零售市场中卡森城和洛杉矶是仅有两个来自于同一个5或10个增长最快的州的大城市统计地区。洛杉矶由于人口爆炸和旅游拉动，2003到2008年预测每年平均增长零售空间5%。按McGraw Hill预测2003到2008年间零售的扩张将出现许多较小的市场。加利福尼亚爱尔赛德罗（El Centro, California）MSA被预测每年是8%快速扩张速度，成为最快增长零售市场空间。紧跟在后面的是弗吉尼亚哈里森伯格（+7.2%）、克罗拉多格里立（+6.8%）、默特尔海滩、南卡罗莱纳（+6.6%——如上所注）和佛罗里达佛特.沃尔顿海滩（+6%）。

    RISKY MARKETS
    风险的市场

  So far, this discussion has been descriptive. The article has parsed the retail space data by various size and growth characteristics. This can be useful to get a perspective on the regional development.However, this sidesteps the question of whether or not these markets have too much or too little retailspace. Generally, a complete answer to this question is dependent on secular and cyclical factors,
and that discussion is beyond the scope of this particular review. On the other hand, certain markets may be more risky than others simply given the relative economic landscape— despite the retail density. Consider a simple paring of the unemployment rate and the retail stock per capita relative to the national average for both. Using this metric7, the “most risky” retail markets in 2003 were not
necessarily the obvious ones. As shown in Table 3-7, El Centro, California came to the top of that list since its local unemployment rate was three times the national average in 2003—even though its retail stock per capita was a relatively low 24.4 square feet per person—well below the national average. Indeed, some of the markets with the highest cyclical risk (using that simple data screen based on the unemployment rate) were in California. Similarly, the high unemployment rate in the New York metropolitan area in 2003 also suggested that even though its retail stock was low, its risk was high.The point of this simple exercise is that reading these data in isolation is itself a risky endeavor. Only by combining the data with a supply and demand framework can real judgments be made. Nevertheless, the starting point of that type of analysis still requires looking at the data.

    讨论到现在,文章已经分析了各种大小与成长特征的零售空间资料.由此可得到地区发展的概念.然而,它回避了这些市场是否有那么多或那么小零售空间的问题。通常要完整的回答这个问题需要对一些要素长期的、反复的观察，这个讨论已超出了本专评的范围。另一方面，与一些不考虑零售密度简单的作出经
济相关分析相比某些市场可能有更多的风险。考虑用失业率与人均零售存量这一对简单的指标相对于国内平均值。如表3-7所示，用这个尺度衡量， 确定那些是2003年“最危险”的零售市场就显得没有必要。

    该表最高的加利福尼亚爱尔赛德罗（El Centro, California）本地失业率是2003年全国平均的三倍，即使它的人均零售存量是相对的低，仅为24.4平方英尺，明显低与全国的平均数。当然，在加里福尼亚某些市场存在最大的周期性风险（根据失业率应用简单的数据显示）。同样，2003年高失业率的纽约市大区尽管零售存量很低，但是被暗示它的风险是高的。这些简单的例子说明，孤立地阅读这些资料是危险的。应结合供需结构的资料才能真正做出判断。不过，类型分析的出发点仍需要查阅这些资料。

    Notes:注释
    
    1 These estimates of total retail stock are from McGraw-Hill Construction.

    2 These figures come from ICSC’s Scope USA and are explored in Bindu Nair, “The Shopping Center Industry in 2004,”Research Review, International Council of Shopping Centers, Vol. 12 (No. 1), 2005, pp. 13-15.

    3 Keep in mind that the population denominators between the median retail stock per capita and the shopping center stock per capita are different. Therefore, it is inappropriate to divide the median retail stock per capita by the shopping center stock per capita to determine shopping center growth relative to the total retail (proxied by the 361 market areas) presented in column 3 of Table 3-2.

    4 By population, those 361 metro areas accounted for 83% of the total opulation in 2000 and probably represented an even arger share of the total retail building stock in the United States. However, the only national data that we have are summed up rom those metro areas, so our use of the term “total retail” is or those markets only. For this study, we use today’s Census ureau’s definitions of metro markets and extend those concepts back in time.Special thanks to the Census Bureau for its help in getting those historically consistent data.

    5 Myrtle Beach is a resort city and attracts 14 million visitors annually ompared to its resident population in the metro rea of about 210,000. Hence, that explains the high retail space per capita.

    6 A similar finding was noted in Mark Eppli and Steven P. Laposa, “A Descriptive Analysis of the Retail Real Estate Markets at the Metropolitan Level,” Journal of Real Estate Research, Vol. 14 (No. 3), 1997, pp. 321-338. This“anomaly” may suggest that there is a non-linear sales productivity relationship based on some population size threshold, which might explain less “need” for a proportionally larger retail stock, or it may suggest that there is a “supply restriction” that is holding back development and expansion. The answer to that question is well beyond the scope of this article and the power of these data.

    7 This is a crude way to segment the data for analytical purposes; there are considerably more sophisticated methods to do that. However, this simple metric using the ratio of the metro area retail stock per capita divided by the unemployment rate and normalized by the national average ratio demonstrates the point.