俞稚玉工作室

俞稚玉

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  俞稚玉,上海购物中心协会副秘书长兼研究发展中心主任。

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上海购物中心产业发展报告

上海购物中心产业发展报告
The Industry Development Report
of Shanghai Shopping Centers
上海购物中心协会(SCSC)
研究发展中心主任
俞稚玉
(高级经济师)
Shangahi Council Shopping Centers (SCSC)
R & D Center Director
Zhiyu Yu (Senior Economist)
May, 2007.

  一、 概况

  1,Profiles

  从整体上看,上海购物中心的发展正从起步走向成熟、走向理性,购物中心的区域分布、开发形式、市场定位等方面也从单一转向多元化。随着整个购物中心产业的逐渐成熟和产业化发展逐渐进入轨道,其在业态、品牌、客流等方面集聚效应和对相关产业的辐射效应正逐渐显现出来,起到了作为顶级商业应有的作用。

  From an overall perspective, the development of shopping centers in Shanghai is walking towards mature and rational. Distribution of regional shopping centers, forms of development, market positioning has shifted from one dimension to diversification. As the Shopping Center industry gradually mature and industrialization development is gradually entering orbit, its combined effect to brand, customers and its radiation effect to other related industries is gradually emerging. They are playing their roles in the summit of retailing.

  1、数量和营业收入稳步上升,对相关产业联动性增强。

  1, 1, Number and revenue are steadily rising and interaction is strengthening with the related industries

  在中国,购物中心的定义和分类与北美不同。按他们的概念统计,截止2005 年底,上海共开业购物中心36 家,建筑面积近379.96 万平方米,主要分布在浦东、卢湾、静安、黄浦等11 个区。

  It is different with North America that definition and classification of shopping centers in China. According to statistics by their concept, until the end of 2005, there were 36 opened shopping centers in Shanghai.Total acreage was 3.8 million sq. m. They were located in 11 districts as Pudong, Luwan, Jingan and Huangpu District etc.Chart 1: Newly opening shopping centers in Shanghai 1993-2010(It is forecast in 2007-2010)

  2005 年,购物中心实现营业总收入250.99 亿元,比上年增长20.3%,其中,商品销售收入213.25 亿元,餐饮业营业收入24.72 余亿元,两者合计占当年社会消费品零售总额的8%;服务业营业收入近6.65 亿元,商务楼租金收入6.36 亿元。

  Shanghai shopping centers realized more than 25.1 billion RMB (equal 3.26 billion USD) revenue in 2005, increased 20.3% than 2004.Among the total revenue, revenue from merchandise sale was more 21.3 billion RMB (equal 0.28 billion USD) and revenue from food service exceeded 2.47 billion RMB( equal 0.32 billion USD). The sum of the two accounted for 8% of Retail Sale of Consumer Goods in this year; The revenue of service industries approximately was 0.67 billion RMB (equal 0.09 billion USD), and leasing revenue of office was 0.64 billion RMB (equal 0.08 billion USD).

  2006 年是上海购物中心开业最多的一年,有11 家购物中心(166.3万平方米)在年内开业,比上年增长30%,至年底上海开业的购物中心达到47 家,建筑面积558.28 万平方米,营业收入将达到318.26 亿元,同比增长27.0%,其中零售业营业收入将达到255 亿元,增长19.6%;餐饮业营业收入将达到31.53 亿元,增长25.7%;服务业营业收入将达到9.71亿元,增长45.6%;商务楼租金收入将达到6.12 亿元,增长3.6%。

  In 2006, the number of new shopping centers is at record. 11 new centers opened, their acreage was more 1.66 million sq. m. Total number of shopping centers reached 47, increased 30% from 2005. Total acreage was more 5.58 million sq. m. The total revenue reached more than 31.83 billion RMB (equal 4.13 billion USD), increased 27% over last year. Comparing to last year, the revenue of merchandise retail was 25.5billion RMB (equal 3.31 billion USD), increased by 19.6%; the revenue of foods service was 3.15 billion RMB (equal 0.4 billion USD), increased by25.7%; the revenue of service industries reached to 0.97 billion RMB(equal 0.1 billion UDS), increased by 45.6%; the leasing revenue of office was 0.61 billion RMB (equal 0.09 billion USD), increased by 3.6%.Chart 2:The revenue of Shanghai shopping centers IN 2006。

  2、市场定位清晰,业态组合结构比例更趋合理。

  1, 2, The clear positioning and more rational structure ofcompounding

  为满足消费者不断变化的消费需求和适应日趋激烈的竞争环境,本市购物中心积极调整结构组合,增加非商品零售如:餐饮、娱乐和文化设施的比率,;扩大商品范围,商品经营日趋多样化;组合不同零售业态,进行行业合作。市场定位上,更多考虑居民休闲娱乐需求,逐渐从商品流通以购物为主功能向休闲娱乐消费功能转移。同时,引进各种服务项目,加强购物与文化的结合。目前本市已开业购物中心商务楼面积70 余万平方米,住宿业面积40 余万平方米,露天休闲广场6 余万平方米,为适应私家车日益增多泊车需要,增加停车场面积,目前有车位近1 万多个。2005 年,购物中心文化娱乐营业收入4 亿元左右,占服务业营业收入的61.2%。

  In order to satisfy continuously changing of customers demand andbe suitable to competitive environment, Shanghai’s various shopping centers make great efforts to adjust combination of retail form, enhance non-retailing business, such as food service, entertainments, culture establishments etc. Now, there is over 700,000 sq. m. of office, 400,000 plus sq. m. of hotel, more than 60,000 sq. m. of the open-air square,more than 10,000 parking spaces. The revenue of culture and entertainment was 0.4 billion RMB (equal 0.05 billion USD).

  3、外资热情高涨。

  1,3,The passion of foreign investors is running up

  上海购物中心的发展与外资有着密不可分的关系,而近期随着金融政策的进一步开放再加上国家对住宅房产宏观调控,导致海外资金加快了对商业地产的进入,同时也将最新的经营理念带到了上海。淮海中路黄金地段原来的上海广场商业部分被摩根斯坦利收购后进行了全面改造,以“上海无限度”的全新面貌重新亮相。除此之外,加拿大亿万豪剑桥、美国西盟地产以及高盛、麦格理、JP 摩根、花旗地产和凯雷基金、美联银行、瑞银都计划以各种方式进入中国商业地产,而一些中小管理公司、零售商也跃跃欲试,意欲进入中国购物中心市场,而在中国购物中心发展最成熟、市场环境最良好,有繁荣的零售市场和最好城市设施的上海成为其首选,也为这些巨头提供了更多的成功机会。

  The development of Shanghai Shopping Center has a close relationship with foreign investment. Under premises with the further opening up and with the recent monetary and foreign exchange policy coupled with national macro-regulation and control of residential, overseas investors accelerate to enter the commercial real estate industry. At the same time they also bring the new concepts and ideas.
  For example, the retail part of original Shanghai Commercial Plaza was comprehensively rebuilt after the acquisition by the Morgan Stanley site on Huaihai (c) Road and reappear by calling "Shanghai Infinity" as a new slogan. In addition, the Ivanhoe Cambridge of Canada, the Simon Property Group of the United States and some financial organizations as Goldman Sachs, Macquarie, JP Morgan, Citigroup, Carlyle Group, Wachovia Corporation, UBS could have plans to enter China in the form of various commercial real estate. Some small and medium-sized management companies and retailers also have intent to enter the China shopping center industry. They first choose Shanghai——there have most mature market environment for the development of shopping centers in China, have the best municipal infrastructure, and flourish
retail market. All of those provide investment success opportunity for these giants.

  二、 主要问题:

  2、Primary problems of development
  上海的购物中心产业还处于发展初期,还存在不少问题:

  Shanghai’s industry of shopping center is still in infant stages of development. There are some problems in development:

  1、 发展理念上存在发展时间超前、体量超大、数量超生。

  2, 1, The development ideas appears that the building time is too early; the size is too big; the number is more than necessary.

  2、开发资金的来源过度依赖间接短期融资。

  2, 2, The resource of building capital overly depend on indirect
short-term finance from banks

  3、 社会资源的配置上没有专业化社会化分工。

  2, 3, The allocation of social resources is lacking of specialization.

  4、 人力资源缺乏专业管理团队。

  2, 4,Professional Human Resource talent is also lacking of.

  5、 经营分散,行业集中度差。

  2, 5, The Industry centralize is insufficiency

  6、 研究力量薄弱,基本的定义、分类、概念和专业术语使用混乱。

  2, 6,Research is weak;.The standard of definitions, classifications,concepts, and professional terms is yet established.

  三、 发展趋势

  3,The trend of development

  1、上海购物中心未来的发展速度

  3, 1, Future development speed of shopping centers in Shanghai

  据调查预测,本市购物中继续呈健康理性平稳发展态势,2007—2010仍在建和拟建购物中心41 家(不含06 年预计开业11 家购物中心),建筑面积540 余万平方米,年均增幅约10%左右。

  Forecasting into the next 5 years, Shanghai will built 41 newshopping centers, the acreage is estimated 5.4 million sq. m., averageincrease by 10% every year.

  2、上海购物中心未来发展的特点

  3, 2 , The characteristic of Shanghai shopping centers future development

  (1) 规划布局逐步实现科学有序。
  3, 2, 1, The layout and distribution will become rational.

  (2) 类型分化多元化
  3, 2, 2, The types of shopping centers will be diversified

  (3) 近期社区型购物中心将得到重点推广。
  3, 2, 3, Community shopping center will have more space of development in the near future.

  (4) 专业的购物中心开发商、运行商巨子逐步形成
  3, 2, 4, The giants of professional developer and operator of shopping centers will form.

  (5) 世博会推动购物中心新一轮建设。
  3, 2, 5,A new cycle of building shopping centers will be drove by World Expo.

文章为作者独立观点,不代表联商专栏立场。

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