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  俞稚玉,上海购物中心协会副秘书长兼研究发展中心主任。

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美国零售房地产业的前景和预期

The U.S. Retail Space Market
美国零售市场空间
Perspective and Prospective on the Retail Real Estate Industry
零售房地产业的前景和预期

    Michael P. Niemira U.S. retail space, as measured in square feet1, grew at about twice the average pace of the U.S.

    population over the last 35 years (see Table 3-1). By 2004, there was an estimated median of 40.5 square feet per person for total retail space—including freestanding stores, shopping centers, street retail and retail at mixed-use projects—among the nation’s 361 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs).

    Shopping center space for the entire United States, on the other hand, is estimated at 0.3 square feet per capita2, as shown in Table 3-2.3

    35年来,以平方英尺计,美国零售空间增长约为人口增长平均速度的两倍(见表3-2.3)。2004年经估计在国家规定的361个大城市的统计区域内(MSAs)每人享有零售面积的中位数为40.5平方英尺,它们包括独立的商店、购物中心、商业街、和合用项目。另外,如表3-2.全美购物中心空间估计每人0.3平方英尺。

    Retail per capita figures in and of themselves are not benchmarks, nor are they very meaningful in isolation. However, in context with similar figures for all metro can help to identify which markets have greater or lesser retail space and can, in turn, be used as a “first pass” look at over- or under-supply.This article goes one step further and examines the relationship between per capita retail stock and the unemployment rate as a guide to the market’s risk.

    孤立地表示无基础对比的每人零售数也许不是很有意义。然而,联系上下文看到所有大城市有类似的表现时,则可帮助识别现有的零售市场空间过大还是过小,并可作为“首过扫描”工具用于依次观察供应不足还是供应过量。本文进一步研究并考察每人拥有零售存量与失业率的关联性以指导规避市场风险。

    SHOPPING CENTER MARKET SHARE GROWTH
    购物中心市场粉额增长

    During the 1970s, shopping center space accounted for about one-third of the nation’s 361 metro markets4 . As a share of the population, there were 9.4 square feet of shopping center space per capita, on average, in the United States during the 10-year period ending 1979. The seemingly large jump to over 20 square feet per capita by 2004 reflected an increased market share of total retail stock in the form of shopping centers. By the 1990s, shopping centers accounted for two-thirds of the nation’s retail stock relative to those same markets

    上世纪七十年代,购物中心约占361个国内大城市市场的三分之一。七十年代末——1979年按当时的人口份额,美国每人平均有购物中心空间9.4平方英尺。2004年反映出购物中心在总零售中的市场份额增加,人均面积大幅跃上20平方英尺以上。九十年代,同口径计算购物中心占国内零售存量的三分之二。

    LARGEST RETAIL SPACE MARKETS
    最大的零售市场空间

    As shown in Table 3-3, the largest metro area market for retail is the New York Northern New Jersey-Long Island,New York-New Jersey-Connecticut Pennsylvania MSA. That MSA area alone accounted for 7.7% of the national metro area population in 2003 (the last actual), but only5.0% of the retail space market for those same 361 geographic markets. Benchmarked to the largest retail space market, the next largest is Los Angeles, which is about8% smaller than the greater New York City area. Not surprisingly, among the top retail markets are Chicago (3), Dallas (4), Miami (5),Philadelphia (6), Atlanta (7), Houston (8), Detroit (9) and Washington (10). Of significance in the wake of Hurricane Katrina is that the New Orleans metro area ranked as the 35th largest for retail space in 2003.

    如表3-3所示,零售业最大的城市区域市场是纽约——北纽泽西——长岛,纽约——纽泽西——康涅狄格——宾夕法尼亚大城市统计地区(MSA)。此统计地区在2003年人口占全国大城市地区的7.7%(最近的普查数),而同口径零售市场空间却仅为5.0%。与最大的零售市场空间相比,第二大的是洛杉矶,它比大纽约市地区小8%,毫无疑问,属顶级市场的还有芝加哥(第3位)、达拉斯(第4位)、迈阿密(第5位)、费城(第6位)、亚特兰大(第7位)、休斯顿(第8位)、底特律(第9位)、和华盛顿(第10位)。遭受卡特里娜飓风的大新奥尔良地区在2003年排行最大零售空间第35位。

    Among the largest 50 markets for retail space, the median density per market was 41.0 square feet per capita in 2003 compared with 40.0 for the median of all 361 markets.

    2003年,在最大50个零售市场中,每个市场密度的中位数是每人41平方英尺,而统计的全部361个市场的中位数是40平方英尺。

    HIGH RETAIL DENSITY MARKETS
    高密度零售市场

    The decision to build or expand retail space is made on a project-by-project basis yielding a potentially different composition of the retail stock in any given MSA.Nevertheless, the MSA ranking of 2003 retail stock per capita, as shown in Table 3-4, shows that the Myrtle Beach,South Carolina metro area had the highest stock per person at 74.8 square feet relative, almost twice the national average.5 Ohio metro areas as a group stand out as having among the nation’s highest retail stock per capita. Lima, Ohio had 70.5 square feet of retail space per capita—the second highest stock per person among the 361 metro areas. But even beyond that, 11 metro markets in Ohio were among the highest 13 with an average of 63.8 square feet of retail space per person. To be sure, this “macro” view does not address the quality or composition of that space, just the quantity. Nonetheless, Ohio claimed a considerable amount of retail density, and this is not a new story.

    Between 1970 and 2003, those 11 Ohio metro markets averaged approximately 75% more retail space per capita than the nation. As a whole, the average retail stock per person of the highest 50 metro areas was 54.3 square feet in 2003, with a median of 51.5 square feet.

    决定构筑和扩张零售空间项目的成功是受在任何给定的大城市统计地区(MSA)中不同成分的零售存量对项目的潜在影响。然而,2003年MSA对每人拥有零售存量的排名(见表3-4)默特尔海滩(MyrtleBeach)——南卡罗莱纳大区有人均74.8平方英尺相对最高的零售存量,几乎是全国平均数的两倍。利马——俄亥俄大区在国内最高人均零售存量的地区中是一个突出的地区。俄亥俄有人均70.5平方英尺零售空间,拥有人均零售存量在361个大区中排行第二。在拥有人均63.8平方英尺零售空间的13个最高的大城市中,其中11个在俄亥俄。确实,这样粗略的观察不计那些空间的质量和结构。但是,可以断言,俄亥俄有相当可观数量的零售密度,这不是一个新的问题。
 
    1997年至2003年这11个俄亥俄大城市市场平均超过国内人均零售空间约75%。总体上,2003年最高的50个大城市地区人均零售存量是54.3平方英尺,中位数为51.5平方英尺。

    LOW RETAIL DENSITY MARKETS
    低密度零售市场

    On the low retail density side, the Madera, California metro area ranked as the lowest among the 361 MSAs in 2003. With 19.4 square feet per person, that was about half of the nation’s average and well below the median of the lowest 50 in 2003, as shown in Table 3-5, of 28.2 square feet per capita (or an average of 27.2 square feet). Of note among the low retail density markets is the New York
metropolitan area, which ranks as the largest retail market in absolute size, but the 349th of 361based on population density. The New York MSA had 25.2 square feet per capita in 2003 and is an anomaly among the major MSAs.6

    在零售低密度这一边,表3-5显示,加利福尼亚曼德拉大区在361个MSA中最低,人均仅19.4平方英尺,这大约是全国平均值的一半并低于2003年最低的50个地区的中位数人均28.2平方英尺(或平均数27.2平方英尺)。零售低密度市场中最著名的是按零售市场绝对大小排列是最大的纽约市区,但根据人口零售密度却排在361个中的第349位。2003年纽约大城市统计地区(MSA)有人均25.2平方英尺,这在大城市统计的主要地区中是突出的。

    WHERE’S THE GROWTH?
    增长在那里?

    Over the five-year period from 1998 through 2003, total retail building stock grew by 2.3% per yearand, according to McGraw-Hill Construction, will slow to an average pace of 1.9% per year in thesubsequent five years. The fastest growing retail market between 1998 and 2003 was in St. George,Utah, with a hefty 8.4% increase per year. Carson City, Nevada had the second-fastest retailexpansion of the 361 MSAs, as shown in Table 3-6, with an 8.0% average annual increase. Although the McGraw-Hill Construction projection generally looks for a dramatic slowdown in retail expansion among the 50 fastest-growing markets between 1998 and 2003, there is one notable exception:Myrtle Beach—which was ranked seventh among the top 50. After average annual growth of 6.3% per year during that period, the MSA is projected to see a slightly faster pace of 6.6% over the subsequent five years.

    从1998年到2003年五年零售建筑存量总的每年增长2.3%,依照McGraw-Hill Construction计算未来五年每年平均增长速度将是1.9%。最快增长的零售市场是在1998年和2003年的犹大州圣乔治(St.George, Utah),每年强劲增长8.4%。表3-6显示,内华达州卡森城平均年增长8%,在361个MSAs区域中零售扩张速度排行第二。虽然McGraw-Hill Construction 预测通常注意到1998年和2003年之间在50个最快增长市场中有一个值得注意的例外, 排行第七的默特尔海滩零售的扩张出现戏剧性的减速。在那段时间每年平均年增长6.3%以后,MSA预测后五年有6.6%较快的增长。

    Another notable fact among the top 50 growing retail markets is that Carson City and Las Vegas are the only two MSAs from the same state among the five or 10 fastest-growing areas. Las Vegas, which is known for its explosion in population and tourist draw, is projected to add retail space by an average of 5.0% per year between 2003 and 2008.Generally, the retail expansion will occur in many smaller markets between 2003 and 2008, according to McGraw Hill. The El Centro, California MSA is projected to expand by a rapid 8.0% per year—making it the fastest growing market for retail space—followed by Harrisonburg, Virginia (+7.2%), Greeley, Colorado (+6.8%), Myrtle Beach, South Carolina (+6.6%—as noted above) and Fort Walton Beach, Florida (+6.0%).

    另外值得注意的事实是50个增长最大的零售市场中卡森城和洛杉矶是仅有两个来自于同一个5或10个增长最快的州的大城市统计地区。洛杉矶由于人口爆炸和旅游拉动,2003到2008年预测每年平均增长零售空间5%。按McGraw Hill预测2003到2008年间零售的扩张将出现许多较小的市场。加利福尼亚爱尔赛德罗(El Centro, California)MSA被预测每年是8%快速扩张速度,成为最快增长零售市场空间。紧跟在后面的是弗吉尼亚哈里森伯格(+7.2%)、克罗拉多格里立(+6.8%)、默特尔海滩、南卡罗莱纳(+6.6%——如上所注)和佛罗里达佛特.沃尔顿海滩(+6%)。

    RISKY MARKETS
    风险的市场

  So far, this discussion has been descriptive. The article has parsed the retail space data by various size and growth characteristics. This can be useful to get a perspective on the regional development.However, this sidesteps the question of whether or not these markets have too much or too little retailspace. Generally, a complete answer to this question is dependent on secular and cyclical factors,
and that discussion is beyond the scope of this particular review. On the other hand, certain markets may be more risky than others simply given the relative economic landscape— despite the retail density. Consider a simple paring of the unemployment rate and the retail stock per capita relative to the national average for both. Using this metric7, the “most risky” retail markets in 2003 were not
necessarily the obvious ones. As shown in Table 3-7, El Centro, California came to the top of that list since its local unemployment rate was three times the national average in 2003—even though its retail stock per capita was a relatively low 24.4 square feet per person—well below the national average. Indeed, some of the markets with the highest cyclical risk (using that simple data screen based on the unemployment rate) were in California. Similarly, the high unemployment rate in the New York metropolitan area in 2003 also suggested that even though its retail stock was low, its risk was high.The point of this simple exercise is that reading these data in isolation is itself a risky endeavor. Only by combining the data with a supply and demand framework can real judgments be made. Nevertheless, the starting point of that type of analysis still requires looking at the data.

    讨论到现在,文章已经分析了各种大小与成长特征的零售空间资料.由此可得到地区发展的概念.然而,它回避了这些市场是否有那么多或那么小零售空间的问题。通常要完整的回答这个问题需要对一些要素长期的、反复的观察,这个讨论已超出了本专评的范围。另一方面,与一些不考虑零售密度简单的作出经
济相关分析相比某些市场可能有更多的风险。考虑用失业率与人均零售存量这一对简单的指标相对于国内平均值。如表3-7所示,用这个尺度衡量, 确定那些是2003年“最危险”的零售市场就显得没有必要。

    该表最高的加利福尼亚爱尔赛德罗(El Centro, California)本地失业率是2003年全国平均的三倍,即使它的人均零售存量是相对的低,仅为24.4平方英尺,明显低与全国的平均数。当然,在加里福尼亚某些市场存在最大的周期性风险(根据失业率应用简单的数据显示)。同样,2003年高失业率的纽约市大区尽管零售存量很低,但是被暗示它的风险是高的。这些简单的例子说明,孤立地阅读这些资料是危险的。应结合供需结构的资料才能真正做出判断。不过,类型分析的出发点仍需要查阅这些资料。

    Notes:注释
    
    1 These estimates of total retail stock are from McGraw-Hill Construction.

    2 These figures come from ICSC’s Scope USA and are explored in Bindu Nair, “The Shopping Center Industry in 2004,”Research Review, International Council of Shopping Centers, Vol. 12 (No. 1), 2005, pp. 13-15.

    3 Keep in mind that the population denominators between the median retail stock per capita and the shopping center stock per capita are different. Therefore, it is inappropriate to divide the median retail stock per capita by the shopping center stock per capita to determine shopping center growth relative to the total retail (proxied by the 361 market areas) presented in column 3 of Table 3-2.

    4 By population, those 361 metro areas accounted for 83% of the total opulation in 2000 and probably represented an even arger share of the total retail building stock in the United States. However, the only national data that we have are summed up rom those metro areas, so our use of the term “total retail” is or those markets only. For this study, we use today’s Census ureau’s definitions of metro markets and extend those concepts back in time.Special thanks to the Census Bureau for its help in getting those historically consistent data.

    5 Myrtle Beach is a resort city and attracts 14 million visitors annually ompared to its resident population in the metro rea of about 210,000. Hence, that explains the high retail space per capita.

    6 A similar finding was noted in Mark Eppli and Steven P. Laposa, “A Descriptive Analysis of the Retail Real Estate Markets at the Metropolitan Level,” Journal of Real Estate Research, Vol. 14 (No. 3), 1997, pp. 321-338. This“anomaly” may suggest that there is a non-linear sales productivity relationship based on some population size threshold, which might explain less “need” for a proportionally larger retail stock, or it may suggest that there is a “supply restriction” that is holding back development and expansion. The answer to that question is well beyond the scope of this article and the power of these data.

    7 This is a crude way to segment the data for analytical purposes; there are considerably more sophisticated methods to do that. However, this simple metric using the ratio of the metro area retail stock per capita divided by the unemployment rate and normalized by the national average ratio demonstrates the point.

    Michael P. Niemira is Vice President, Chief Economist and Director of Research for the International Council of Shopping Centers. Oliver Brassard provided research assistance for this artic

    Table 3-1

   

    Based on the total for 361 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs).

    Sources: McGraw Hill Construction; U.S. Census Bureau; ICSC Research

    根据361个大城市统计地区 (MSAs).

    资料来源:: McGraw Hill Construction; U.S. Census Bureau; ICSC Research

    Table3-2

   

    Based on the median per year for 361 MSAs

    Sources: McGraw Hill Construction; National Research Bureau–a subsidiary of CoStar Group; ICSC Reasearch.

    根据每年361个MSAs资料取中位数.

    来源: McGraw Hill Construction; :National Research Bureau–a subsidiary of CoStar Group; ICSC Reasearch.
    Table 3-3

   
   
   
    Markets indexed with largest equal 100.

    Sources: McGraw-Hill Construction; ICSC Research.

    市场指数最大为100

    来源: McGraw-Hill Construction; ICSC Research.
    Table 3-4

   
   
   

    Sources: McGraw-Hill Construction; U.S. Census Bureau; ICSC Research.

    Table 3-5

   
   
   

    Sources: McGraw-Hill Construction; U.S. Census Bureau; ICSC Research.

    Table 3-6

   
   
   

    Sources: McGraw-Hill Construction; ICSC Research.

    Table 3-7

   
   

    Sources: McGraw-Hill Construction; U.S. Department of Labor; ICSC Research.

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