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  俞稚玉,上海购物中心协会副秘书长兼研究发展中心主任。

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2006年零售销售展望:经济错乱症

  2006 U.S. Retail Sales Outlook: Economic Paramnesia?
  2006年零售销售展望:经济错乱症

  Time to Take A Breather Over the last 20 years, the average annual increase in U.S. retail sales was 5.4%.

  However, over the last two years, the pace of retail spending was a hefty 7.4%---the strongest two-year showing since 1999-2000, when sales also grew by an average pace of 7.4% per year. Although high and rising oil prices certainly boosted gasoline service station sales in 2004 and 2005, even excluding that component and the oft-volatile motor vehicle category still showed solid retail sales growth of 7.4% in 2004 and 7.1% in 2005.

  近20年,美国零售销售年均增长5.4%.可是近两年零售消费增长速度强劲为7.4%。最快的两年为1999-2000年。销售年平均增长速度也是7.4%。虽然2004年和2005年油价飞涨确实推动了加油站的销售。即使去除不稳定的汽车品类的内容,零售销售增长仍表现坚挺,2004年为7.4%,2005年为7.1%。

  No matter how you dissect these retail sales data, the consumer was a big spender over the last two years. Indeed, maybe too big of a spending. Personal income grew by about two percentage points slower over the 2004-2005 period and about one percentage point slower than retail spending in 2003. You would have to go back to 2000 and 2001 to see personal income grow faster than retail sales did. More formally, a statistical relationship between personal income and retail sales (estimated between 1979 and 2005) would suggest that,

  over the last two years, income could only support an average yearly increase of 5.5% in retail sales (as shown in Chart 1).

  无论如何仔细的分析这些零售销售资料,消费者比过去的两年开销更大,更肯化钱。个人的收入约增长2个百分点,慢与2004-2005年,比2003年零售花费约慢1个百分点。2000-2001年个人收入的增长比零售销售增长得更快,经对个人收入与零售销售相关性统计分析(1979年-2005年)可见:近两年收入仅能支持零售销售年均增加5.5%(见图1)。

  So, is 2006 the year to “pay the piper?” We think that there are a number of economic pointers in that direction. As such, our retail sales forecast for 2006 (see Table 1 on page 2) is for a moderate (below trend) pace of 4.1%—a pace that is a near-copy of the 2003 performance.

  因此,我们认为2006年的“埋单”有许多经济趋势的晴雨表。同样,我们对2006年零售销售预测是中等速度4.1%(趋势向下),这个速度接近2003年的业绩(见表1)。

  If, as our statistical model hints, retail sales growth over the last two years has exceeded its income-supported pace, then one place in particular that will be most noticeably affected will be motor vehicle spending. Our forecast suggests that motor vehicle demand is likely to be down by 1.5% in 2006—its first annual decline since at least 1992.

  我们的统计模型提示,近两年零售销售增长已经超过了收入可支持的速度。有一个特别的地方最引人注目,即对汽车的消费。我们预测指出:2006年汽车的需求可能下降1.5%。这至少自1992年以来是第一次衰退。

  To some extent, the 2006 retail spending forecast is all about a “pause” or “breather,”which will allow income to grow faster than retail spending and savings to be replenished a bit.The 2006 transition for the consumer—which we envision—hopefully will achieve a better balanced and more sustainable trend for the sector.

  从一定程度上说,2006年零售花费的预测都是“停顿”或“息歇”,这将是收入增长快于零售的花费并且储蓄将少量增加。我们想像2006年消费者的变化有希望达到更好的平衡并且更加好的支撑这一领域。

  AROUND THE REGIONS
  按地区

  U.S. Retail Sales Growth Slowed Across the Nation
  全美国零售销售缓慢地增长

  U.S. total retail sales excluding food services in December rose 0.7% from November and 6.3% from the prior year December, as shown in Table 2 and Chart 2. This capped a year in which non-food services retail sales a d v a n c e d 7.3 % , d o w n approximately a quarter of a percentage point from 2004 (see Table 3 on page 5).

  美国12月份包括食品服务的零售总销售比11月份上升了0.7%并比去年12月份上升了6.3%(见表2和图2),非食品零售销售提升了7.3%。比2004年下降月0.25%(见表3)。

  Regional sales performances were more robust during the first half of 2005 than in the second half, as can be seen in Charts 3-6 on page 4. Meanwhile, in the South, retail sales exceeded that of the nation’s for both half-year periods in 2005.

  地区销售业绩2005年上半年比下半年更强劲(见图3-6)。南部2005年上半年超过全国平均的零售销售。

  For all of 2005, total retail sales excluding food services were solid in all four Census Bureau regions, with gains in the narrow range of 6.9%-7.6%. The South remains the most economically-important area in the country, as it outperformed the other regions (+7.6%) and captured the largest share of total sales in 2005—36.1%—a notch up from its share in 2004.

  2005年,包括食品的零售总销售在四个人口调查局分区中均坚挺。在6.9%至7.6%的狭幅中增长。南部仍是全国经济最重要地区,它胜过其它地区(+7.6%),在2005年中总销售超过2004年获得最大的份额36.1%。

  Estimates of regional retail sales were developed by ICSC Research and are consistent with national data compiled by the U.S. Department of Commerce. The regions are defined by the U.S.Census Bureau. For the states covered by each region, please refer to the Statistical Appendix that begins on page 9. Meanwhile, historical retail sales by region are presented in Tables 3-4 on page 5.

  地区零售销售评估是由ICSC Research开发的并与美国商业部汇编的国家资料相协调。地区的由美国人口调查局定义。每个地区覆盖的州请查阅《统计附录》。地区零售销售历史资料见表3-4。


  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

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